The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

If the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator holds, Edwards’ warning appears justified. But the rule is not infallible. After earning ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

An ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near surefire recession signal again has reared its head in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in ...

I still remember back in 2006, when the curve inverted ahead of the financial crisis. Hardly anyone outside of bankers, economists, hardcore investors and bond traders knew what it meant. But by 2008, ...

Recession fears have cooled, but a labor market chart flagged by one bearish strategist might give bullish investors pause.

The yield curve’s inversion and imminent un-inversion signal a high probability of a recession, likely beginning within months. Historical analysis shows the depth and duration of the current ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

An ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near surefire recession signal again has reared its head in the bond market. Stream Connecticut News for free, 24/7, wherever you are. The ...