In the Gulf, Invest 98L has a low chance for development, before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday. The National Weather Service in Brownsville, Texas, said regardless of tropical development, locally heavy rain and increased swells "will be a concern" along the Texas coast.

Most long-term models predict Erin will curl away from Florida. Those projections often are unreliable more than a week out, and the hurricane center warned that doubt remains in the forecast. In the four- and five- day range, track forecasts have an average error of about 150 to 215 miles, forecasters said.